Ilaria Rosella Pagliaro An international study shows that electric cars are not always a green solution: if powered by electricity from fossil fuels, they can actually worsen emissions
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Purchasing an electric vehicle in hopes of reducing one’s environmental impact may not always be the right choice, at least not everywhere. A new study conducted by the University of Auckland in collaboration with Xiamen University (China) and published in the journal Energy reveals a surprisingly counterintuitive finding: an increase in electric vehicle (EV) adoption can be linked to a rise in carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions—unless the electricity used to charge them comes from renewable sources.
More electric cars don’t automatically mean less CO₂
The researchers analyzed data from 26 countries over a span of 15 years, using an in-depth statistical approach to study the environmental impact of human activity. The result? In many cases, an increase in the number of electric vehicles has coincided with an increase in CO₂ emissions, rather than a decrease.
This happens because, in many countries, the electricity required to charge EVs is still generated from fossil fuels, such as coal and oil. In these cases, electric cars end up being more polluting than traditional vehicles when considering their entire life cycle: from production to disposal.
As Simon Tao, a PhD candidate at the University of Auckland’s Business School’s Energy Centre, explains:
“the global adoption of electric vehicles has not led to a significant reduction in CO₂ emissions. In fact, it has been positively associated with an increase in emissions. This challenges the common belief that electric cars automatically help with decarbonization.”
Only with green grids do evs truly reduce carbon emissions
According to Associate Professor Stephen Poletti, to gain a real environmental benefit from electric vehicles, it’s essential to clean up the national electricity grid. If an EV is charged with energy produced from coal-fired power plants, it can indirectly contribute to higher emissions compared to a modern gasoline or diesel vehicle.
The study highlights that only when the global share of electricity generated from renewable sources exceeds about 48% will the adoption of electric vehicles begin to significantly reduce CO₂ emissions. As of 2023, the percentage of energy produced from renewable sources worldwide was just over 30%, so there is still a long way to go.
However, in the case of New Zealand, the situation is different: more than 80% of electricity is generated from renewable sources such as hydro, wind, and solar. This allows the country to maximize the environmental benefits of electric vehicles.
Poletti comments:
“This study demonstrates that we cannot address the decarbonization of the transport sector in isolation. Electric cars are only as green as the energy that powers them.”
For electric vehicles to become a truly effective tool against climate change, public policies must promote the expansion of renewable energy and improve electric infrastructure. This includes:
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Setting ambitious renewable energy production targets;
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Offering incentives and tax credits for clean energy producers and consumers;
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Investing in smart and resilient electric grids capable of efficiently integrating renewable sources;
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Supporting local renewable energy projects to increase public acceptance of new installations;
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Phasing out fossil fuel subsidies and introducing carbon pricing mechanisms to encourage the transition to clean energy.
In addition to EV adoption, the study also analyzed other factors that influence emissions: economic growth, green technological innovation, renewable energy use, and urban density. The results show that:
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Economic growth tends to increase emissions;
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Compact cities and ecological innovation help reduce them;
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The consumption of renewable energy has the most significant effect on reducing emissions.
As Tao emphasizes:
“The adoption of electric vehicles can contribute to achieving climate goals, but only if accompanied by a decisive transition to truly clean energy.”
Source: Energy
