Rebecca Manzi Emperor penguins face potential extinction by 2100 due to global warming, with a 22% population decline in 15 years. Immediate action is required to protect this vital species and its ecosystem.
@Stephen Brown/AAD
The future of emperor penguins is becoming increasingly uncertain. According to a study published in Nature Communications: Earth & Environment and led by Peter Fretwell from the British Antarctic Survey, this iconic species of the Antarctic could face complete extinction by 2100 if current trends are not reversed.
The research, based on satellite images collected between 2009 and 2024, has closely monitored the evolution of penguin colonies across a vast area of Western Antarctica. This region spans 2.8 million square kilometers (1.08 million square miles), roughly the size of the state of Alaska, and includes key areas critical for the species’ survival, such as the Antarctic Peninsula, the Weddell Sea, and the Bellingshausen Sea.
Counting emperor penguins is no easy feat. The extreme conditions and vast territorial spread make direct surveys incredibly challenging. This is why satellite photography has proven to be an essential tool for identifying colonies and estimating their population size.
The primary cause: global warming
The latest data, updated through 2024, paints a clear picture: the population of emperor penguins has declined by 22% over the past 15 years, with an average annual decrease of 1.6%. This trend is worse than initially anticipated and has raised alarm bells in the scientific community.
The primary cause of this decline is linked to global warming, which is progressively melting sea ice platforms. These floating ice surfaces are essential for nesting and chick development. However, they now melt earlier than before the Antarctic summer, disrupting the entire reproductive cycle of the species.
As early as 2018, a concerning reduction of about 10% was observed. But the most recent update shows that the worsening trend is both continuous and steady. Although the study only covered a portion of Antarctica, this region is considered representative of the entire ecosystem and is particularly important due to the presence of many colonies.
Scientists fear that without effective measures to curb climate change, emperor penguins may indeed disappear by the end of the century. This loss would not only be symbolic but also serve as a stark indicator of the vulnerability of polar ecosystems in the face of human activities.
