Laura De Rosa An international research group led by Goethe University has found that the frequency of extreme weather events in this area has increased steadily over time. Especially in the last 20 years...
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In the center of Lighthouse Reef in the Caribbean Sea is the Great Blue Hole, an enormous underwater sinkhole. Many years ago, scientists stumbled upon a surprising discovery on its bottom: plastic debris was found, a chilling reminder of human existence on Earth.
And now, the Great Blue Hole is in the news again—this time, for a reason equally ominous. An international research team, headed by Goethe University, has found that over the past 5,700 years, the frequency of extreme weather events has been slowly on the rise. And as far as the 21st century goes, they predict an even more explosive surge in regional storms. Why? Because of climate change.
By reading the record of storms in the sediment cores, we can read the book
The researchers came to their conclusions after analyzing sediment deposits accumulated over thousands of years at the bottom of the sinkhole. The layers were perfectly preserved and are an outstanding climate archive.
The scientists extracted a 98-foot-long sediment core, clocking 5,700 years of climate history. From the natural record, they extracted crucial information on the frequency and magnitude of past atmospheric events.
Since tropical storms and hurricanes tend to leave larger, beige or white-colored detritus relative to quieter times, the team led by Professor Eberhard Gischler could reconstruct the trend of storm activity over the centuries. And the findings were staggering: storm activity has typically increased over the centuries, with 574 severe events documented over the last 5,700 years. More worrying still, the last two decades have evidenced a dramatic acceleration—plainly tied to global warming.
We are clearly seeing a rise in storm frequency, and the future looks even more intense
According to their data, the scientists have made prognoses for the future that are anything but comforting: within this century alone, the area might encounter an average of some 45 tropical storms and hurricanes, a level much greater than at any point in the last few millennia.
This sudden surge is not only a sign of a shift in the climate but also a sign of the increased susceptibility of coastlines as the world continues to warm up.
